A US tariff of 10% on UK goods could cost the Northern Ireland economy £85m and 800 jobs over the next 15 years, a Department for the Economy study has suggested.
It does not mean the economy will shrink in absolute terms, rather it will be smaller than it would have been if the tariffs had not been imposed.
The study only considers the direct effects on Northern Ireland exports rather than any secondary effects.
The impact would rise to a £110m loss of potential economic output if US President Donald Trump was to impose a 20% tariff on pharmaceuticals.
Pharmaceuticals is the part of the Northern Ireland economy which is most exposed to Trump tariffs as almost half of the sector's export sales go to the US.
The study suggests a 20% tariff would mean pharmaceutical sector output would be around 5% lower compared to a no tariff scenario.
Tariffs are effectively a tax on imported goods and are a major part of Trump's economic policy.